National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center on Tuesday predicts 14 to 21 named storms, six up to 10 hurricanes and three to six strong hurricanes – of Strength category 3 or higher.
The CSU forecast is called for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major storms.
Of course it’s impossible know how many of these storms will hit the US coast or where the most severe storms develop.
However, during the announcement, NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad acknowledged that current hurricane cycle for Atlantic is busy one.
“If you go back Two years later, the 2020 hurricane season broke records around the world. board and this is the most active season on record with 30 named storms,” Spinrad said.
“The 2021 hurricane season, which is the third active year on record in terms of names of storms brought us 21 named storms with impacts ranging from the Appalachians to way to New England, resulting in in over $78.5 billion in damage to the USA.
What drives above average seasons
There are several contributing factors that play in “busy”hurricane season”. in en active period,” Spinrad said. There are certain ingredients that drive intensity and frequency of hurricanes.”
La Niña creates favorable conditions for hurricanes — in different from this of El Nino.
El Niño hurricane seasons are known. for winds in the upper levels of the Caribbean that tear hurricanes apart as they try to form, making the seasons less active.
Another reason for above-normal prognosis is location of what is called the “Persian Gulf Loop Current”. This current it’s a river 600 feet deep of hot Caribbean water that flows between Cancun, Mexico and western Cuba into the Persian Gulf,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
This loop current flows on north now, pumping warm water to deeper levels of ocean to travel closer to coastal areas along the bay of Mexico. “Warm water is just too deep and a hurricane has an unlimited supply. of hot water for intensification,” Myers said.
Forecasters compare the situation of the loop current with where was it placed in in record- a watershed season in 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita both made beach access.
“Yes, noose current looks like 2005,” said Matthew Rosenkrans. lead forecaster hurricane season forecast with NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “But it depends on whether the storm is really moves over this loop current and predicting a specific track of storms are not something we can do outside of the weekly timeframe.” – Rosenkrans added.
Come back to-back record-break years
During the 2021 hurricane season, eight storms made landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast and in 2020 six made beach access along the bay.
“Hurricane Ida swept through nine states, demonstrating that anyone may be in straight path of hurricane and in danger from the remains of storm systemFederal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Dina Criswell said. for everyone to understand them risk.”