Russia’s response to the recent violence in Israel and Gaza has been cautious as it considers its alliances and interests in the region. While not openly condemning the violence, Russia called on all sides to renounce violence and exercise restraint. Analysts argue that Russia stands to benefit from the turmoil due to its distraction from the war in Ukraine, oil exporting status, and potential to mediate between conflicting parties in the Middle East. However, there is also a risk of being dragged into a wider conflict that could damage its influence and assets in the region.

Since Russia’s initial statement, the conflict has intensified with Israel’s airstrikes causing significant damage in the Gaza Strip. This escalation increases the possibility of involvement from Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, posing a potential problem for Russia. Geopolitical analyst Samuel Ramani warns that Moscow is currently in a nervous position, as the conflict could have both positive and disastrous outcomes for its influence in the Middle East. has reached out to the Kremlin for comment.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas provides Russia with certain advantages. Firstly, it distracts Western attention from the situation in Ukraine, a country where public support and funding are declining. Russia may also exploit the war to spread disinformation about Ukraine and create discord among its allies. Additionally, the conflict’s potential expansion could raise oil prices, benefiting Russia as a major oil producer. Higher oil prices would bolster Russia’s economy, especially as it plans to increase defense spending in 2024. The International Energy Agency notes that while the war hasn’t directly affected oil supplies, the situation remains uncertain.

Russia’s good relations with both Israel and several Middle Eastern countries position it as a potential mediator between rivals like Israel and Iran. The ongoing conflict offers Russia an opportunity to showcase its diplomatic prowess, which has been relatively quiet in recent times. Analysts highlight Russia’s engagements with Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt on various issues related to the conflict, demonstrating that it still maintains diplomatic partnerships in the region.

If diplomatic efforts fail, the violence in the Middle East could spread and pose significant challenges for Russia. As a country with vested interests in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, Russia could face military risks if Israel and Iran become involved in a broader conflict. Russian military bases in Syria and allegations of receiving weapons from Iran for Ukraine further complicate the situation. The death of Russian personnel and the need to maintain relationships with Iraq’s paramilitary forces present additional concerns for Russia. Ultimately, Russia aims to avoid choosing between its military ally Iran and its long-standing partner Israel.