The Impact of Generative AI on Jobs: Augmentation vs Destruction
Introduction
The latest wave of generative AI is more likely to augment jobs than destroy them, according to a new study by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
Partial Automation and Job Complementarity
Most jobs will only be partially exposed to the automation generated by technologies such as ChatGPT, so it is more likely that they will be complemented by automation — rather than replaced entirely.
Quality over Quantity
The impact of these technologies will be greater on the quality rather than on the quantity of jobs, according to the global study.
Gender, Job Category, and Income-Level Disparities
In addition, the effects will be uneven by gender, job category and country income-level.
“Any form of technological transition would have a strongly gendered effect, with a badly managed process disproportionately harming women,” reads the report.
Gender Disparity in Automation
About four percent of global female employment is subject to potential automation through generative AI technologies, compared to only 1.4 percent of male employment. The trend is even more pronounced in high-income countries.
Office Jobs and Female Employment
This is because there are many more office jobs in these countries, which have become a source of employment for women as countries have experienced greater economic development.
Clerical Work and Exposure to Technologies
The ILO estimates that it is clerical work that will be most exposed to technologies such as ChatGPT.
Impact on Job Categories
About a quarter of clerical jobs will be highly exposed to this new wave of technology, while only a small percentage of managerial, professional and technical jobs will be highly exposed.
Threat to Women’s Participation in the Labor Market
As a result, many administrative jobs may never be created in these developing countries.
The ILO warns of the danger: “Concentrated job losses in female-dominated occupations could threaten advances made in the past decades in increasing women’s participation in the labour market.”
Limitations in Low-Income Countries
Moreover, for these low-income countries, the potential benefits of generative AI are limited by the lack of adequate structures to enable its use, with widespread internet access and reliable electricity still pending.
Different Degrees of Impact
As a result, only 0.4 percent of total employment in these low-income countries will be at risk of automation (equivalent to around one million jobs), compared with 5.5 percent in high-income countries (equivalent to around 30 million jobs).
Management and Regulation
Regardless of their varying degrees of impact, generative AI is neither good nor bad in and of itself, the ILO report says. Its impact will depend on how its expansion is managed.
Poor implementation can also reduce workers’ autonomy or increase their work intensity, for example when algorithmic management tools are used and there is no room for feedback or discussion with management.
So far, discussions on AI regulation have not addressed the impact of these technologies on working conditions.
Importance of Proper Policies
The EU’s own AI Act has focused on market rather than labour implications, and although it will not be introduced during this mandate, employment commissioner Nicholas Schmit has stressed that they are attaching “high importance” to the issue of AI in the world of work.
“Without proper policies in place, there is a risk that only some of the well-positioned countries and market participants will be able to harness the benefits of the transition, while the costs to affected workers could be brutal,” concludes the report.
