Mr. Bonniere of Democratic information firm TargetSmart was among first take into account of ascending curve in early voting on young people. In an interview, he said he disagreed with Shor’s analysis, but it’s too early to make sweeping statements about what happened.
“We saw, in in last a week of early voting that youth vote really started to grow,” he said, “which suggests that the notion that youth vote will come out on Election day was valid.” But only analysis of all votes will determine whether it true.
However, there is another theory that is hinted at in a little of numbers. He claims that the vote young people was down in general since 2018 – but higher in states where it counts.
Circle Analysts, for for example, came to the conclusion that while 27 percent of young voters turned out nationwide, that number rose to 31 percent in nine key states. Republicans succeeded in three – Florida, North Carolina and Ohio – but the rest six there were all the states where the Democrats won notable victories, such as Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Mr. Shi of Voters of Tomorrow, made the same point. “If you look at the states on the battlefield, we see the following: young Democrats rise and young Republicans remain home”. He said he believed that extremist positions of Republican candidates in these states angered up young Democrats, but had the opposite effect on Republicans.
In Wisconsin director of State Democratic Party Ben Wikler released his own statistics: Shortly before the 2018 midterm elections, the state claimed 654,000 registered voters under the age of 35. year, he said, the comparable figure was 783,000 – 20 percent increase.
He said that rules allowing new voters to register on the same day they quit ballots drove a little of in rise, as well as intense recruitment efforts young voters launched by the State Democratic Party in 2019.