“Trust is growing fast for significant rainfall event through Southern California, Arizona and eventually to central California and Nevada before Saturday,” the National Weather Service wrote. in en online discussion Wednesday.
heat and the drought relief offered by such rain would be beneficial in it’s exceptionally dry region. However, there is a serious risk of floods as runoff affects parched terrain.
“It’s never good too much rain at once, damn too common among the slowlymoving tropical storms,” the Weather Service wrote. “So the flash flood potential also is rapidly increasing.”
However, forecasters emphasize that there is great uncertainty. in exactly how a lot of rain will fall and where.
Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph wind, Kay is whipping in Pacific Southwest of Clue of Lower California. Expected that move essentially parallel to the Mexican peninsula over in next pair of days.
The National Hurricane Center is calling for Kay will strengthen slightly on Wednesday before starting to weaken on Thursday as it approaches possible landfall in Mexico. Hurricane warning lifted for west-central coast of Baja California, where the storm should be closest to the coast, while tropical storm warnings were issued further south.
Parts of Baja California could see up up to 15 inches of rain from Kei, as well as destructive ocean tide and hurricane-force winds. Flood rains from Kei already killed three people in Baja California, according to local reports.
Wind from Kei is expected to affect almost everything of Baja California even on bay of California side. Kay is a big hurricane with tropical storm-force winds (over 39 mph) are picking up up up to 230 miles from its center.
Potential blows in Southern California
Kay’s size does it probable that there will be a storm in will have a noticeable impact on Southern California, Arizona and Nevada, although the storm began to move away from the coastline of California and its offshore islands at the Hurricane Center on Friday.
By Thursday clouds from Kay begin extending into the southwestern United States, helping to alleviate heat. “Great cloud shield of Kay will finish the event very effectively heat wave through area” the Weather Service wrote.
A little outer groups of Kay could get lost in the far south parts of California already on Thursday, according to the weather forecast. office in San Diego.
Moisture from Kei is predicted to spread over in region in serious friday bringing with it’s potential for rainfall from San Diego to Phoenix, with showers possible how far north like Las Vegas.
The weather service posted a large strip of Southern California in mild to moderate risk zone for flash floods from Friday to Saturday mornings. He warned that risk can be upgraded to high if model simulations converge on a few inches of precipitation.
There remains uncertainty as to what how much rain will fall and where, but a counter-clockwise flow around the storm will drive winds from the east over a lot of of Southwest. This directional flow means that the heaviest rainfall is likely to be concentrated on the eastern slopes. of Mountains of Southern California.
“The most vulnerable areas for the flood will in slot canyons, burn scars and urban areas,” the Weather Service wrote. “Peninsular Ranges of Southern California, being the mountains furthest southwest and therefore closest to the ocean and center. of Kay, get the brunt of appropriate precipitation.
latest Precipitation forecasts over the weekend due to moisture from Tropical Cyclone Kay. There remains uncertainty on terms and amounts, but the greatest potential for heavy rains remains on eastern slopes of the mountains. #kavks rice.twitter.com/9NLlyZCeBS
— NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) September 7, 2022
Current rainfall forecasts suggest that areas closer to the coast, from San Diego to Los Angeles, should see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. The weather service wrote that if the storm’s trail moves closer to the coast, it will “mean more precipitation in coastal cities, especially San Diego and nearby suburbs, but may eventually spread north to Los Angeles on Saturday.”
Wind and rain Kay most likely also there is effect on California wildfires worsen in last days. Between Friday and Labor Day four people were killed in two separate forest fires in state.
If Kay follows closer to the coast, more precipitation possible in Southern California and Arizona that will be helpful in dent regiondrought and forest fire reduction risk. But if Kay follows further from the shore, it decrease relief from drought and acute fire risk would remain.
Kay would not first tropical system affect California, but such cases in the condition is quite rare. They are usually formed from the remains of tropical storms and hurricanes, as would be the case with Kay, not straight punches.
The most famous meeting in California with tropical system was probably in 1976 when Tropical Storm Kathleen was previously a hurricane. over ocean, entered south-central California from Mexico. Kathleen Unleashed maximum precipitation of almost 15 inches, condition record.
“Ocotillo, California suffered catastrophic damage, with from 70 to 80 percent of city destroyed” NASA wrote. in summary of storm. “Twelve deaths were blamed on storm in United States.”
No name system ever made landfall in California though nameless storm in 1939 crossed the coast around Long Beach, bringing with it a tropical storm.
The Atlantic is busy, but there are no landfall threats in the US
Tropical Atlantic seething with activity after a rare August with no named storms.
Danielle, category one hurricane, dancing harmlessly in Atlantic Ocean and expected perform loop by loop more than 600 miles northwest of Azores before heading to Spain as post- tropical cyclone.
hurricane Earl, also Category 1 storm expected to become seasonal first strong hurricane, rated Category 3 or higher, late Thursday. A severe storm is forecast to touch Bermuda, which is under a tropical storm. warning because of potential for strong wind and rough sea over in next 36 hours.
Two more systems attracted attention of Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. Tropical wave to the west of on the islands of Cape Verde 60 percent chance of develops into a tropical depression over in next 48 hours strong tropical wave moving off Coast of Africa has 30 percent chance of transient to tropical system inside next five days.