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The rally of bitcoin in October, especially in the last seven days, has been driven by the expectation of the approval of the first bitcoin ETF in the United States , by the State Securities and Exchange Commission United (SEC).
The price of BTC exceeded USD 60,000 this Friday, October 15, for the first time in six months, as reported by CriptoNoticias, and is less than 4% of reaching its all-time high in mid-April. At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $ 61,879.
This Friday, with the reintroduction, after being modified, of the Proshares ETF prospectus, without that has been rejected by the SEC, there was the tacit approval of a bitcoin ETF based on futures contracts, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
This year 19 applications for ETFs of bitcoin before the SEC, the entity that will disclose the respective decisions as of this Monday, October 18, when the decision on the ProShares ETF is scheduled. This decision was the first planned in October, as detailed in this Arcane Research study, commented here. The analytical firm also analyzes the impact on the price of bitcoin, of the approval of an ETF in the short, medium and long term.
Is the price of bitcoin going towards the 6 digits?
With the notorious rise in the price of bitcoin Since October 2020, the price of BTC started this year very close to $ 30,000, and then rallied vigorously above $ 64,000 in mid-April. Jurrien Timmer, who is director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity Investments, maintains that the current rally in the price of bitcoin (BTC) will continue for the next two years. For this prediction is based on the model of supply and demand. Timmer estimates that bitcoin will reach USD 100,000 in 2023, as reported by this outlet.
Timmer has pointed out in his presentations that the growth of the bitcoin price of more than 30% in the month of October, is due to the long-term holders having maintained their accumulation strategy. Such growth, the specialist points out, is not the product of short-term speculators.
Bitcoin in the corporate race
While bitcoin has returned to eighth in the asset ranking by market capitalization, beating Tesla and Facebook, and Behind silver, the first cryptocurrency has moved more money in October than the most valuable companies, including Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, as reported in this medium.
So far in October, the daily trading of bitcoin moved more money, on average, than the commercialization of the shares of the main companies by market capitalization. With an average daily trade volume of $ 36.79 billion, bitcoin far exceeds Tesla, which trades a daily volume of less than half of $ 14.64 billion. Bitcoin is nearly four times Apple’s and has more than four times the daily volume of Amazon, while displaying more than five times Microsoft’s average daily volume.
The two main lines of this graph are the annual supply of bitcoin (purple) and the money supply of the United States (white, blue area). As can be seen, bitcoin is an asset whose annual supply is consistently decreasing, compared to the monetary expansion policy of the Federal Reserve. .
It is precisely the uncertainty about future inflation that leads investors to prefer bitcoin , as “digital gold”, which serves as a hedge against inflation. Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin (gold) shows an exponential evolution in the graph, which closed September at USD 44,785 and currently exceeds USD 60,000
These analysts see no point in a bitcoin ETF
For some analysts linked to the Bitcoin ecosystem, an exchange-traded investment fund (ETF) of bitcoin, based on futures, would go against the philosophy of this cryptocurrency, which promotes that holders are owners and custodians of their BTC. Analysts Raoul Pal, Preston Pysh, and Lyn Alden agree that tracking a bitcoin futures contract is not the same as owning the respective cryptocurrency.
In contrast, Steven McClurg, Valkyrie’s CIO, who participated in a panel on bitcoin ETFs, discussed here, takes a radically opposite position. McClurg argues that there are a large number of pension funds that could not have exposure to bitcoin due to their own policies, now they can access a bitcoin ETF based on futures, since it is an investment vehicle regulated by the SEC.
Bitcoin is the second topic of interest to the IMF
In a global financial stability report commented by CriptoNoticias, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) points out that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are of great relevance to the current economy.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) has grown in volume traded and exceeded USD 110,000 million in September, says the IMF and highlights that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies almost reaches $ 2.5 trillion, the study says.
The report positions the cryptocurrency ecosystem as the second topic of global interest in the financial field. The other two are the recovery of the economy after the Covid-19 pandemic and investment funds that promote green businesses.