Climate change has taken center stage challenge of 21st. century. It refers to changes in weather patterns and shifts in climatic temperatures. Climate change is detrimental various countries around world. He has a deep effect on agriculture and maximizes risk of Food security. Pakistan one of Top 10 countries suffered greatly from changes in climatic temperatures and weather patterns. The impact is wide-ranging, such as reducing in agricultural production, persistent droughts, coastal erosion and more than the average rainfall. flood situation in the country was today one of main causes of climate change that has devastated thousands of acres of land and displaced millions of people with the loss of life.
According to preliminary estimates, floods flooded 7 million hectares. out of 22 million hectares of total cultivated land, which account for about 33%. Initial estimate according to data provided by the provinces to the Ministry of Food security and research reveals damage of 298 billion rupees in branches of agriculture and animal husbandry. Agricultural sector accounts for 23% of GDP and 19% to gross output. The output multiplier of the agricultural sector is estimated at about 1.43. This represents the sector ability multiply input of 1% in issue by 1.43%. share of private consumer spending for the agricultural sector accounts for 12%, which is the fourth highest share of any sector in private consumer spending. About 37.4% of work force used in agriculture sector.
floods of The year 2010 had a negative impact on the agricultural sector, as the production of major crops declined by 15%. Agriculture growth fell to 0.23%, dragging down total GDP growth up to 2.58%. Destruction caused recent floods of a higher size, as it flooded vast areas of cultivated land. Damage caused on the cotton crop was irreparable, since it contributes 1% of GDP. Vegetables, date palms, sugarcane and rice harvest also received serious damage, which can lead to the loss of 50% of the product. Between 700,000 and 800,000 head of livestock were lost, which is 11% national GDP. Geographically, 110 districts were heavily affected. in all four provinces.
It can be safely estimated that production losses in the agricultural sector could be around 25-30%, including livestock losses and crop losses. Reduction of 25% can be far-reaching, as agriculture is a significant contributor to gross output and value added. According to estimates received using input-output Leontief model reduction of 25% in the agricultural sector generates gross production losses of $21 billion and gross value added loss of $14.7 billion, which is 3.85% of in current GDP.
Input Output model represents industry connections through various resources used by the sector to produce output. Sectoral losses in gross output show that the agricultural sector will receive most of the of burden and lose 76% of gross output and 80% of total cost added. Other industries that may be affected highest food, beverages, tobacco, retail/wholesale, trade and chemicals, rubbers and plastics. Food, beverages and tobacco can fall in price by 4% of gross output and 1% of total cost added; retail and trade may suffer losses of 9.5% of gross output and 11% of total cost added; chemicals, rubbers and plastics can lose 4% of gross output and 2% of Meaning added.
Economical effect of this is nature can be described as an abbreviation of GDP growth by 3.84%. Next yearGDP growth must remain within 1-2% combined with higher inflation and rising unemployment. government should revise with IMF to help on agreed condition of provincial surpluses and reduce non-development expenses to spend more on infrastructure restoration. support price for wheat should to be announced already possible with subsidies on agricultural inputs and interest-free loans. Federal and provincial governments should increase budget allocations of social safety nets with instant effect.
Published in Express Tribune, 8 September.th2022.
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