Climate breakdown made recent record UK heat 10 times more probably the researchers found. World Weather Attribution analysis shows that temperatures in Great Britain during a heat wave when it hit 40.3C, were higher than modeled by climate models.
Researchers say extreme temperatures in Western Europe rising faster than expected.
Find out was it hot made more likely due to climate change, scientists analyzed weather data and computer simulations to compare climate like today with climate of in pastby following proven methods. Then they analyzed maximum temperature over two days of the heat when Britain was at its most violent hit warm weather.
Extreme heat in increased in Western Europe more than the climate models predicted. Bye models greenhouse gas emissions estimate temperature increase in this heat on 2C, historical weather records show that the heatwave would have been 4C colder in a world unwarmed by human activity.
climate specialists concerned it means impact of global heating will be even. more sharper than previously thought.
Friederike Otto, senior climate lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate change, Imperial College London, said: “In Europe and other parts of in world We see more as well as more record- interruption of heat waves causing extreme temperatures that get hotter faster than in the climate models.
“This is a disturbing finding that suggests that if carbon emissions are not reduced quickly, the consequences of changing of the climate on extreme heat in Europe, which already extremely deadly, maybe even worse than we previously thought.”
In spite of fact in event was made more such heatwaves, probably due to climate change, are still relatively rare.
model results assume there is 1% chance of it’s so hot next year. However, weather records suggest this may have been underestimated as similar heat waves in Europe happened more often and was hotter than the climate models suggest.
The study was conducted by 21 researchers within the framework of of World weather attribution group including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, UK, USA and New Zealand.
The meteorologists said results of this study is “sobering” because they confirm what used to be feared – that climate change is having a big impact on temperatures, making extreme heat more probably.
Fraser Lott, climate monitoring and attribution scientist at the Met Office, said: “Two years ago, scientists from the UK Met Office found in chance of seeing 40C in Great Britain was one in 100 in any given year, up from one in 1000 in natural climate. It was sobering to see this event it happened like this soon after this study to see the original data back from our weather stations.
“This new work confirms previous research and also points us for further improvements. latest events that made it possible to predict of heat for two weeks in in advance, now served in next generation of climate modeling”.
The experts called for quick cuts in emissions to prevent the situation from worsening. Extreme heat kills thousands of people throughout Europe, and it is believed that hundreds of excess mortality in Great Britain was caused because of the recent heat wave.
“Heat waves are the deadliest type of extreme weather event in Europe, killing thousand each yearRoop Singh said. of Climate Center of the Red Cross and Red Crescent. “But they shouldn’t be. A lot of of these deaths can be prevented if adequate adaptation plans are in place. Without rapid and comprehensive adaptation and emission reductions, the situation will only get worse.”