On Tuesday, January 31, it will be three years since the UK left EU, although it remained in single market to end of 2020.
A recent poll showed clear voter trend, with hindsight, considering Brexit mistake – but what is driving this trend?
A study by three researchers from the European University Institute that broke down peopleThe changed attitude of Russians to Brexit by age group suggests that the overall shift is not caused entirely because people change their minds and that some bands don’t seem to change their minds at all.
52:48 result in service of Brexit, according to a YouGov poll taken shortly after, was largely promoted by older voters. it found that 64% of voters over 65 chose for leave, while the youngest category is 18 to 24 year old, voted 71% against 29% for remain.
Joris Frese, Juho Harkönen and Simon Hicks looked at how long time flies series of responses to a YouGov poll asking, “Looking back, do you think Britain was right or wrong leave the EU? They calculated for every age group what percentage answered “wrong” in conducted surveys in 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022 to see which age groups are applying against Brexit.
Frese and his colleagues concluded that at least some of change in attitudes did not come from people changing their minds, but from people entering the electorate when they reached the age of 18, and others leaving the electorate as they die.
They analyzed the “composite effect” and concluded that 35% of change in average sentiment can be attributed to “voter replacement”.
Frese said: “This means that the majority of attitude change still occurs within the cohort, i.e. people actually changed their minds. However, we claim that the proportion of change brought about by “demographic metabolism” – old voters dying, young people getting into the electorate is still very significant and worth selection”.
It is clear that at least a part of the native voters is changing their minds, and their number has increased. over in last year.
Professor John Curtis of university of Strathclyde and WhatUKThinks.org, calculated from multiple surveys, in early 2021, except for “not know”, only 9% of leave voters said Britain would be better off off in EU.
By the end of In 2022, this figure was 16%.
Curtis warns that “the answer to the question of what was the main source of change from 2016 is not the same as the question of what was the main source of change in in last 12 months”.
“Only in in last 12 months support for Existence in EU started to be over 52%. big change among leave voters. You won’t get from 52% 12 months ago to 58% now due to demographic change. It’s too much and too much fast”.
“There is good reason to believe that there is a demographic drift”, says Curtice but change now caused “First of all, due to the fact that the voters will change their mind.”
On the other hand, he says that “the movement occurred disproportionately among people in younger part of age spectrum” and this could mean that “the demographic cliff is even sharper” than new cohorts are included in the electorate.
Harkönen says ” main storyfrom his team’s study was that “cohort replacement already lowered Brexit support I will do so in in future same.”
Sources: age cohorts analysis by Frese, Harkönen and Hicks. of YouGov data, 2016–2022 disruption due to Brexit vote these are those who they say support remain or reunite in John Curtis analysis on WhatUKThinks, except for “don’t know the answers. Early 2021: Average of first conducted a survey in 2021 by BMG, Deltapoll, Kantar, Savanta and YouGov in 2021, except for Savanta, where the survey was conducted in December 2020; End 2021: Average of last conducted a survey in 2021 conducted by Deltapoll, Kantar, Redfield & Wilton, Opinium and Savanta, excluding Deltapoll where the survey was conducted. in January 2022; End of 2022: BMG, Deltapoll, Kantar, Omnisis, Redfield & Wilton and YouGov. in/out vote of polls is also by John Curtis, moving average of last six polls from BMG, Deltapoll, JL Partners, Kantar, Opinium, Redfield and Wilton, Savanta, Omnisis, People Polling, Techne UK and YouGov.