Tuechicken new prime minister takes responsibility in downing street next week, among pressing issues in them in-tray will be able of in union. With the SNP looking for independence for Scotland and current issues with EU and Northern Ireland protocol, how will they deal with in problems upcoming?
connections with EU over Brexit goes beyond tension with seven separate rights infringement cases filed against United Kingdom in attitude to failure implement the Northern Ireland protocol which was set up to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Although Liz Truss is probably next prime The minister protested that 18 months of negotiations aimed at resolving the dispute came to nothing, leaving her with No option to the table new repeal laws protocol, reality is that negotiations were suspended and never resumed after February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Rumor has it that Truss will try to restart negotiations by invoking Article 16. of Northern Ireland protocol. Article 16 allows or side take unilateral action if they believe that protocol caused “serious economic, social or environmental hardship” or distracted of trade.
Some read it as a positive move, softer option than Northern Ireland protocol (NIP) bill allowing legislation allow Britain will unilaterally break up parts of in special Brexit agreements for Northern Ireland.
But sources in Brussels say that move will lead to an escalation already a major crisis, claiming Britain had decided “not to fight” with EU proposals made last October that offers some of what Truss was looking for, including “express” or “green lanes” for goods going to the republic of Ireland.
“Not one optimistic about this. We in for very bumpy few months,” said one insider.
At the same time, Brussels is pushing forward with his legal actions in a story that could end with scrapped of UK-EU trade to deal with.
Deadline for UK response to infringement proceedings on 15 September.
If this is considered unsatisfactory, the EU move quickly get a “reasoned opinion” combat British arguments and move cases forward to the European Court of justice (ESJ).
If, as some believe, Truss is legal moves must pander to the eurosceptic wing of Tori party that’s it possible The UK would simply ignore the European Court of Justice, arguing that it has no legitimacy.
European Court is unlikely rule before next year in any occasion except a thaw in ice relationship with The EU is not far off.
If a, in meanwhile Northern Ireland protocol bill becomes law EU could introduce tariffs on Fish and farm products from the UK for seven days.
Short sharp shock one of three key reciprocal weapon available through trade agreement, according to Katherine Barnard, professor of EU Law at the University of Cambridge.
Northern Ireland remains a combat zone for hard Brexiters who want absolute breakthrough with EU, and up so far, Truss has willingly fought them battle.
Rumor has it that David Frost, an uncompromising Euroskeptic, will receive place in her office looks like the pot of Brexit will continue to boil.
But what about price for Northern Ireland, where the assembly was left without executive power after the election. in May? Will the Democratic Unionist party give up your boycott if article 16 triggered?
“Northern Ireland protocol Bill was the cart before the horse. Enforcement of Article 16 at least give what currently illegal raincoat of legitimacy,” says John Tong, British and Irish politics professor in university of Liverpool.
He believes that Article 16 might be enough to get a DUP. back assembled, but not back executive power – i.e. won’t take up position of deputy first minister or appoint a local cabinet of ministers.
first test of potency of Any moves under article 16 looms at the end of October when the 24 week time period for power-negotiation exchange terminated by amendments to the Northern Ireland Act in February.
Northern Ireland secretary then obliged call new elections creating another Belfast crisis and potential showdown with DUP in less than eight weeks.
No appetite for a new elections says Tonga so that Westminster can pass legislation allowing for more time for He speaks.
Tonge thinks DUP can be lured back to the executive, if new prime minister dramatic action was taken and guarantee, via Act of parliament that the NPS bill was to become law even if it was rejected in house of Lords.
Such a dramatic intervention possible under rules one year after second reading of bill, which in this case will be June 27, 2023.
Voters in Northern Ireland had a zombie government after the elections in May means no new laws can be made or multi-year budget passed.
perspective of No new government until June 2023 will fill many with horror Considering cost of life and health, but also remind many how Boris Johnson set himself the task of Brexit of interests of Northern Ireland, through a deal in which part of UK continues to comply with EU laws on trade.
“This is an extraordinary deal that the EU has signed up to and shows extreme shortage of attention to detail on British side” says Tong.
When Truss sacked Scotland first minister Nicola Sturgeon as the “attention seeker” whose calls for a second independence referendum”should be ignored”, the collective despondency of many Tories north of the border was palpable.
He noted a serious failure, they argued, in order to catch an urgent need convince moderate unionists, hesitant “yes” voters and a stocky minority of undecided of benefits of left in in union – like a debate in Scotland gains momentum after Sturgeon names her favorite date for a second referendum of October 19 next year.
With the SNP leader setting himself up on a collision well with Downing Street by asking the Supreme Court rule on legitimacy of conducting new referendum without the permission of Westminster, the constitutional question looks set dominate Trass in the early months in office.
Supreme Court to hear Scots government case in October, although Sturgeon herself told the Guardian in recent interview that she does not expect a decision until early 2023.
Eileen McHarg, professor of public law and human rights at Durham University, says: “If the Supreme Court upholds the legitimacy of referendum [without Westminster consent] – which I don’t expect but don’t think is impossible – then obviously UK government is faced with a decision relatively how he answers.
“Does it say: ‘Go ahead, but we will ignore the referendum’, does it agree to cooperate or legislate to abolish this power out of competence of Scottish parliament in spite of of which supreme court says?
“If a decision goes the other way and the supreme court says Holyrood can’t legislate for referendum unilaterally, then I expect the position to be maintained – which last there was a referendum in generations, now is not the time, everyone of this rhetoric – which is really about trying to kick it issue into the tall grass.
Many argue that this position is rapidly becoming unsustainable. “What absolutely clear of all the polls, yes voters want referendum at some point between now and 2026 and there are no voters.” says renowned psephologist Sir John Curtis, professor of politics in university of Strathclyde.
“You won’t persuade people who are on Yes side that Scotland should remain in in union on on the grounds that “we are going to deny you chance to express my opinion in service of Yes’. Is not add up”.
In spite of of is there a referendum next October, says Curtis, Scottish government is about to collapse up this is campaign convince people of benefits of independence. If they can offer a compelling answer, why is that better? for Scotland will outside UK and within the EU, this further complicates for Unionist ‘sit on their hands.”
“Work party says “Please, we can talk about something else,” the tories say, “we shouldn’t talk about it,” and that doesn’t mean either of they are really attractive with a debate that is definitely on on among Scottish voters,” Curtis says.
What has not yet been decided is how Truss will choose to get into a fight – her aggressive statements during robberies suggest that she prefers the “muscular union approach” that many of Johnson’s entourage advocated when he first took office.
But the allies assume she will keep more the conciliatory approach advocated by Michael Gove, with accent on promotion union through direct investment.
Former Scot secretary David Mandell’s MP told The Guardian before submitting Truss at the only Scottish auction. in Perth earlier this month that she was a “bold” unionist. who understood Scotland after spending some of her childhood in Paisley.
Mandell added that Truss had an immediate advantage in don’t be Johnson. “We won’t have double referendum on Boris Johnson and on independence. It will be less controversial and repulsive for the average Scottish voters.”
Will more of the same – even if in Gove form of subtle promotion is enough to convince enough Scots that they want to remain part of in a union, even if it means staying outside EU?